Sale Starts Game 1 as the Braves Open Their Postseason Series Against the Phillies

Six months of baseball come down to this. The Braves open a best-of-three Wild Card Series against the Phillies on Tuesday at 2 PM ET, and after everything this team went through to get here, a short series against a division rival we know this well feels exactly right.

There's no easing into it. Three games at most, maybe two. One bad inning can end a season in this format, and both clubs know it. So the Braves are going with the arms they trust most, and the lineup decisions are going to change depending on which hand the Phillies throw at them.

Chris Sale Gets Game 1

No surprise here. Sale takes the ball Tuesday afternoon, and he's the guy you want setting the tone. When he's locked in and working quickly, the other dugout goes quiet in a hurry.

What I'll be watching early is how he handles the top of the Phillies' order the first time through. If Sale can get through the first couple of innings clean, the Braves can play the game on their terms. If he's grinding from the start, Walt Weiss has a bullpen that's deep enough to take over earlier than usual, and he won't hesitate in an elimination format.

Tyler Mahle in Game 2

Mahle gets Wednesday. That's a lot to put on a No. 2 starter, since Game 2 is either a chance to close it out or the game that keeps the season alive. He doesn't need to be Sale. He needs to keep the Braves in it long enough for the late-inning guys to take over, and he's been steady enough to do that.

The thing I like about Mahle in this spot is that nobody expects him to go eight. Five good innings and a handoff to the back of the bullpen is a winning formula, and the Braves have the relievers to cover the rest.

Game 3 Is Still an Open Question

If it goes the distance, Grant Holmes is the most likely starter. But there's a real chance the Braves go with an opener instead, with Ray Kerr or Brent Suter taking the first inning or two before handing it off. It depends on what the first two games look like and how much the bullpen has been used.

JR Ritchie isn't an option this time around. He started Sunday and needs the rest, so he's likely off this roster entirely. If the Braves advance, he could be part of the conversation in the next round.

Remember September 11

The last time these two teams really went at it, it took 11 innings. The Braves won 6-5 at Truist Park on Sept. 11, and that game is a pretty good preview of what we could see this week. It went deep into the night and came down to which bench made the better late moves.

That game is also a reminder of how Weiss uses his bench. Brewer Hicklen and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. both came in late as defensive replacements and pinch runners, and that's exactly the job they'll have in this series. You don't win an 11-inning game against Philadelphia without somebody running for somebody and somebody else catching a ball in the gap that a slower outfielder doesn't get to.

The Lineup Depends on the Pitcher

This is where it gets interesting. Against right-handers, Mauricio Dubón likely starts at shortstop, which lets Mike Yastrzemski play left field. Against a lefty, Ha-Seong Kim is the more likely shortstop, and Dubón can move to the outfield. Drake Baldwin probably slides to DH against a left-hander with Sean Murphy catching.

Dubón is the piece that makes all of that work. Having one guy who can play almost anywhere means Weiss can build the best lineup for each matchup without giving up much on defense. And with Acuña, Michael Harris II and Dubón in the outfield, the Braves can run out a really strong defensive group when they want to.

If you'd rather make the call yourself, we built a starting lineup game where you can set your own batting order against a righty or a lefty, pick the Game 1 starter and your closer, and send it to your friends.

The Bullpen Finally Has Some Order

For a good chunk of the season, the late innings felt like a guessing game. Robert Suarez's return changes that. Now the Braves have a real group at the back end, with Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, Suarez and Dylan Lee doing most of the heavy lifting. Victor Mederos and Dylan Dodd have turned into dependable options behind them, and Brent Suter and Ray Kerr give Weiss two lefties who can get a big out or soak up innings if a game gets away.

In a short series, that depth matters more than anything. Nobody's saving arms for next week.

What to Watch Tuesday

First, Sale's pitch count. If he's efficient, the Braves can map out the late innings exactly how they want. If he's not, watch how early Weiss goes to Fuentes or Suarez.

Second, the first lineup card. Whether Dubón is at short and Yastrzemski is in left tells you right away how the Braves see this matchup.

Third, the late-game moves. If it's close in the seventh or eighth, look for Hicklen or Keirsey to show up on the bases or in the outfield, and for Kim to come in for defense. That's how they won on Sept. 11, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again.

Get your work excuses ready. First pitch is 2 PM on Tuesday, and I'm not missing a single pitch of it.